Before buying a player, make sure he is likely to start the next three matches and stay on the pitch long enough to return.

Quick answer

What to do

  • Check starts, minutes when starting and the usual substitution time.
  • Avoid a new buy who regularly comes off around 60 minutes unless the attacking numbers are exceptional.
  • Do not sell after one blank if the player still starts, stays advanced and keeps set pieces.

Start with four simple numbers

Check starts, average minutes when starting, substitute appearances and the timing of substitutions. A player who regularly leaves on 65 minutes needs a much stronger attacking rate than one who stays for 90.

Then ask why. Fitness, tactical role and game state lead to different forecasts. A planned substitution in pre-season is not an injury, while three competitive benches are not bad luck.

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Position changes do not guarantee role changes

Kroupi (MID – Bournemouth) now scores as a midfielder, so goals and clean sheets are worth more. Marmoush (FWD – Man City) has moved the other way, from midfielder to forward. Those changes affect scoring, but the team sheet still decides whether the advantage exists.

A reclassification can tempt managers into treating last season’s role as fixed. Watch the actual position. A listed midfielder playing as the highest attacker is exciting. The same asset used wide, rotated and withdrawn early is a different proposition.

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Premiums need fewer doubts

Cole Palmer (MID – Chelsea)’s price buys penalties, creation and a history of heavy involvement. If those ingredients remain, an ordinary first return should not shake the pick. If minutes or set pieces change, the cost makes that information urgent.

This is the difference between patience and stubbornness. Be patient with finishing variance. React when the opportunity itself has shrunk.

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The transfer test

Before buying, write one sentence explaining why the player should start the next three matches. If the sentence relies on hope, a friendly or a vague quote, wait.

Before selling, write what changed. A blank is not a change. A missed session, a new signing in the same role, a benching or a run of 60-minute substitutions can be.

Sources

Sources we checked

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